MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab3a0b878fb9f2028d6898ddd312148dbe3128be411c9038423655269321042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 40c | 10,236$4,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,096.77 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 10,168$6,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,066.23 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 32c | 2,156$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.22 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 2,136$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.96 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 20c | 1,150$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 680.23$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.49 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Mets | 39c | 668.85$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 875 | 52.7%461 W · 414 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 645$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 548.56$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked New York Mets | 40c | 508$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed New York Mets | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 409.47$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 347.37$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 320$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Mets | 37c | 244.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 148$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 144.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked New York Mets | 40c | 124.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed New York Mets | 38c | 110.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked New York Mets | 43c | 109.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 63c | 105.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Mets | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets | 41c | 78.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked New York Mets | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 36c | 54.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed New York Mets | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 33.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked New York Mets | 42c | 26.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 26.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…48cdbacked New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.