MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee67905a6e72d4115f83d81547edae9ed6c4011642ca7f1a77cf45222722b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 66,666$34,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,666.28 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 25,073$12,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,034.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 48c | 19,000$9,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,880 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 9,793$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,092.21 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 4,003$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 48c | 2,812$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.4 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 1,961$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 51c | 1,710$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.04 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Under | 48c | 1,614$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 49c | 1,555$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.84 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 48c | 1,378$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.27 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 1,011$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 53c | 891.43$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.11 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 848.2$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.58 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 48c | 489$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.28 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 50c | 366.43$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 51c | 295.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 282$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 51c | 196.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 48c | 193.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 51c | 192.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 170.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 151.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Under | 49c | 119.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 50c | 106.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 49c | 104.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 49c | 104.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 49c | 99.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 48c | 97.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Over | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 47c | 88.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 85.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 51c | 84.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 49c | 57.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 52c | 49.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 50c | 48.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 50c | 46.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 48c | 38.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Under | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 50c | 32.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 51c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 64c | 20.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…c4c3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.