MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f6bf308fc5e77cd1203439f4e028e82deabdf38925df4ec97a89d1f851230d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 1,169$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 528.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Over | 73c | 273.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 203.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 58c | 172.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 24c | 135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Over | 51c | 100.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 24c | 99.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 80.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 52c | 77.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 46.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 42c | 35.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 28.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.