MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab7f44d8ac48be5dc45796c1bc76bf16f52ee23ac5caede51c5f473354d6638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 55c | 2,046$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.71 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 1,609$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 866$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 479.66$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.44 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 55c | 390$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 315.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…3ebfbacked Under | 80c | 238.83$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 20c | 205.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5053…913ebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 50c | 46.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 43c | 40.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 55c | 34.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 27.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 55c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.