MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b5d88ea060f9758d08c082bceae323bfda5a0804bac4c2cdaea7a6e7207d12d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d4…69a9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,219$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.26 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 80c | 726.07$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 548.86$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 529.61$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.82 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 321.22$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.22 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 226.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 190.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 132$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 129.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 105.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 102.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 102.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 101.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 92.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9753…ea49backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 90.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 82.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 75.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 68.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 65.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 70c | 63.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 52.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 44.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 41.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 37.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…bf94backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 32.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.