MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af49e0e85f0b36bf2cda7c2297426d96eb3d08f6679bdd4efb24802e7d95371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Royals | 40c | 3,984$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.6 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 60c | 3,509$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…6f88backed Royals | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Cardinals | 42c | 1,488$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.04 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 54c | 1,115$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.09 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Royals | 56c | 999.98$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cardinals | 44c | 911.36$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.36 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Royals | 57c | 774.26$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.88 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Royals | 28c | 699$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.92 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 61c | 513.1$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…040bbacked Cardinals | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 57c | 354.72$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cardinals | 44c | 341.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cardinals | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cardinals | 40c | 163.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Cardinals | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 41c | 125.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 57c | 121.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cardinals | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a4…932dbacked Royals | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Royals | 32c | 80.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 55c | 80.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Cardinals | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Royals | 59c | 64.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Royals | 42c | 53.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Cardinals | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 44c | 49.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a3…8b71backed Royals | 59c | 49.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cardinals | 56c | 48.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Cardinals | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cardinals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cad9backed Cardinals | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Royals | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Cardinals | 44c | 34.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Cardinals | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…4a24backed Cardinals | 43c | 33.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683f…6473backed Cardinals | 44c | 31.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…40dbbacked Royals | 58c | 29.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4dd1backed Royals | 59c | 28.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…7637backed Royals | 59c | 25.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Cardinals | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…f8f5backed Cardinals | 44c | 23.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2be…f489backed Royals | 60c | 22.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d2e3backed Royals | 60c | 21.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3c…9ed9backed Cardinals | 70c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.