MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b28e5a1bf6fbaa0aa981dead4861a9321d0ceb7da67e4493301c6cf77d6077f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 19,789$12,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,717.87 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Athletics | 39c | 17,744$6,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,920.16 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…6099backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 5,528$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 38c | 4,694$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.77 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 40c | 3,512$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.24 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Athletics | 39c | 2,787$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.58 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Athletics | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Athletics | 36c | 2,032$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.44 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Athletics | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Athletics | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Athletics | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 999.99$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 847$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.27 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Athletics | 39c | 562$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.52 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 33c | 483.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 43c | 466.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Athletics | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 419.72$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Athletics | 38c | 388.4$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 353.31$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 304$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…ff54backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Athletics | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 149.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Athletics | 37c | 148$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 125.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Athletics | 39c | 119.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Athletics | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 97.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 64.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Athletics | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 42.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Athletics | 36c | 40.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Athletics | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.