Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Siena Saints vs. Marist Red Foxes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5c4dc2111086d93597e8fa2502e9584d77383e7dbc69f6d75fa1b77e416ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siena Saintsof Siena Saints, Marist Red Foxes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Siena Saints | 42c | 14,991$6,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,621.41 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 10,566$6,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,058.33 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Marist Red Foxes | 55c | 3,633$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.31 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marist Red Foxes | 55c | 2,609$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.26 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Siena Saints | 49c | 2,340$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.94 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Siena Saints | 56c | 2,297$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.68 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 2,085$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…a488backed Siena Saints | 45c | 1,869$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…0925backed Marist Red Foxes | 56c | 1,863$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Siena Saints | 45c | 1,496$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.13 | 227 | 30.4%69 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Siena Saints | 44c | 885$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.6 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Siena Saints | 60c | 778.27$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.36 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Siena Saints | 47c | 738.83$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.83 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Marist Red Foxes | 54c | 697.57$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.69 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Marist Red Foxes | 4c | 637.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Siena Saints | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Marist Red Foxes | 54c | 591$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.81 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…7e2ebacked Siena Saints | 69c | 512.02$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Siena Saints | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Siena Saints | 67c | 432.67$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…7a8ebacked Siena Saints | 60c | 424.17$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Siena Saints | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Siena Saints | 44c | 369$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Marist Red Foxes | 55c | 332.6$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Marist Red Foxes | 53c | 282$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Siena Saints | 44c | 273$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Marist Red Foxes | 56c | 266.75$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Siena Saints | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Siena Saints | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…21d6backed Siena Saints | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Siena Saints | 45c | 179.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 315 | 37.8%119 W · 196 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Marist Red Foxes | 51c | 162.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Siena Saints | 55c | 136.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Siena Saints | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Siena Saints | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Siena Saints | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Siena Saints | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Siena Saints | 45c | 86.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Siena Saints | 46c | 85.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Siena Saints | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Siena Saints | 73c | 75.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marist Red Foxes | 42c | 70.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Marist Red Foxes | 34c | 66.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Siena Saints | 52c | 63.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Marist Red Foxes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Marist Red Foxes | 44c | 57.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…8eb4backed Siena Saints | 73c | 55.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Siena Saints | 80c | 55.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Siena Saints | 46c | 53.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marist Red Foxes | 56c | 53.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Marist Red Foxes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…fd78backed Marist Red Foxes | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Siena Saints | 64c | 47.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Siena Saints | 46c | 46.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Siena Saints | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Marist Red Foxes | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed Siena Saints | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Siena Saints | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…63a6backed Marist Red Foxes | 54c | 38.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Marist Red Foxes | 54c | 35.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 216 | 46.8%101 W · 115 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…78b8backed Marist Red Foxes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Marist Red Foxes | 55c | 32.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Siena Saints | 42c | 30.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…2585backed Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Siena Saints | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Marist Red Foxes | 38c | 29.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Siena Saints | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Siena Saints | 45c | 24.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Siena Saints | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Siena Saints | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Marist Red Foxes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Marist Red Foxes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…be18backed Marist Red Foxes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Siena Saints vs. Marist Red Foxesthis page
- Siena Saints vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 133.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 134.5Under won
- Spread: Marist Red Foxes (-1.5)Siena Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.