Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b87d673f69e65712acda2c28f54d0919d608ac0ca24563a093d68b85c0b1de9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 418.16$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 48c | 374.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 75c | 320.58$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 304$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 273.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 198$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 191.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 48c | 184.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 156.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 48c | 140.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 52c | 130.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 121.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 119.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 115.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 110.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 107.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 95.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 93.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 49c | 82.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 82.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 51c | 73.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 70.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 64.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 62.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 61.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 60.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 56.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 54c | 54.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 53.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 55c | 52.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf89…01c3backed No | 39c | 49.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 51c | 45.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 37c | 40.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…6570backed Yes | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 67c | 36.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 47c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 35.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…0be9backed No | 40c | 33.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 57c | 33.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…6512backed Yes | 64c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 47c | 29.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 43c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 51c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 53c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 27.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 47c | 26.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 62c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 51c | 23.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd6…7453backed Yes | 63c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +50%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 65c | 15.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.