Mls · resolved market
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b8bba38d184999d8848e1b72937a7d9f61147e8b597ddd7d96fb80238703085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 38c | 4,454$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 3,019$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.58 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…ddcabacked Under | 41c | 1,231$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 1,070$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.93 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 1,012$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.06 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 18c | 255$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 917 | 53.1%487 W · 430 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 74c | 189.2$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 28c | 189$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 69c | 180$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 29c | 164.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 163.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 1,888 | 36.5%690 W · 1,198 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 60c | 162.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 73c | 118.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 393 | 34.6%136 W · 257 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 23c | 109.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 73.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 63.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1,306 | 51.2%669 W · 637 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 59c | 60.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 74c | 58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 26c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 36c | 56.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 70c | 53.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 53.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 972 | 56.5%549 W · 423 L | +71.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 69c | 51.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 69c | 51.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 69c | 51.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 69c | 51.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 45.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d90…a934backed Over | 39c | 37.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 34.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 31c | 32.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 65c | 25.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 53c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 687 | 50.7%348 W · 339 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 20.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 289 | 21.5%62 W · 227 L | -30.4wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 70c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.