Golf · resolved market
Will Scottie Scheffler win a Major in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bade5a272fbb1f73da595ae81d8b292215af31998d29c74514be7abb9148a3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7263…f2d7backed Yes | 37c | 62,177$23,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,171.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…dbdebacked No | 63c | 62,177$39,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,171.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,249$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…875cbacked Yes | 40c | 704.91$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.57 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 15c | 654$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…74dabacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 42c | 203.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed No | 32c | 154.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 9c | 120.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 106.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 79.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 40c | 31.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 26.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.