MLB · resolved market
Dodgers vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bea3e893a294976e396c20a92a5b20a466cc4059ed4a0fc9c0dbbcf87b33f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Dodgers, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Marlins | 46c | 13,586$6,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,308.08 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Dodgers | 52c | 7,143$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.68 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dodgers | 64c | 5,000$3,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.78 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 35c | 2,610$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Dodgers | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Marlins | 39c | 1,018$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 30c | 913.78$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.54 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked Dodgers | 71c | 753$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Dodgers | 57c | 705.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.97 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 33c | 662.33$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.57 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Dodgers | 76c | 608.45$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Dodgers | 64c | 413.54$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Marlins | 5c | 319.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Dodgers | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 41c | 277$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Marlins | 30c | 265.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins | 33c | 245$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Dodgers | 60c | 189.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…88d5backed Dodgers | 68c | 178.84$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dodgers | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Dodgers | 67c | 138$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Dodgers | 58c | 136.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 34c | 123.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Marlins | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…4b7ebacked Dodgers | 63c | 65.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Marlins | 40c | 50.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Marlins | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Marlins | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Dodgers | 68c | 43.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Dodgers | 69c | 43.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Marlins | 32c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Dodgers | 63c | 37.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Dodgers | 63c | 35.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Marlins | 31c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Dodgers | 63c | 30.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 37c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Dodgers | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…3893backed Dodgers | 62c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Dodgers | 68c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Dodgers | 69c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…1f7cbacked Dodgers | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Dodgers | 76c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.