Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2e0287ee64070c9818bb55ad3f87d5381f88355e0b94e8552df680fb71ee76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 15c | 355.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 351.29$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 242.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 215.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 18c | 194.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 156.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 138.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 115.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 26c | 114.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 110.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 33c | 103.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 14c | 99.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 38c | 89.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 17c | 83.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 75.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 78c | 69.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 47.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 75c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 64c | 27.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 71c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 14.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.