Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08d6d1b49b8fe31e0427588513556109a0cf4f1dfbcf2a1ef1a653e68ee3483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 54c | 437.37$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.89 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 38c | 355.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.74 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 279.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 248.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 19c | 195.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 36c | 187.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 186.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 36c | 166.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 156.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 139.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 136.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 133.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed No | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 120.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 119.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 110.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 105.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 24c | 102.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 99.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 97.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 89.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 82.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 77.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 72.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 71.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 37c | 67.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 44c | 61.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 61.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…f7b5backed Yes | 76c | 60.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 58.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 40c | 58.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 66c | 57.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 57.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 53.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 53.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed Yes | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 49.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 64c | 47.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 46.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e32backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 78c | 43.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 49c | 43.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 63c | 42.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 67c | 42.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 35c | 40.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 63c | 39.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 40c | 37.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 35.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 34.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 33.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 32.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 28.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 55c | 23.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 19.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…e055backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.