Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8465fdd46b13dbf5328ea5324698125becf6c74d24c3cdf02f3ab3ae1d67ed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 0c | 5,944$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 371.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 356.01$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 28c | 355.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 342.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 264.86$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 216.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 199.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 22c | 190.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 189.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 175.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 23c | 171$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 162.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 78c | 151.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 23c | 149.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 148.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 144.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 137.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 126.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 111.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 80c | 111.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 73c | 109.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 72c | 107.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 107.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 76.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 70.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 20c | 69.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 22c | 68.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 67.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 67.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 67.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 18c | 55.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 46.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 45.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 69c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9884…42b8backed No | 80c | 40.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 38.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 35.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 30.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…53d5backed No | 69c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…9086backed No | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.