Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c54a30c1186ec548cece1c11bad8fd9eb90211262c254507705dd0e7e86b3a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 43c | 2,521$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.46 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 1,420$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 1,032$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.53 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.1 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 69c | 835$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.15 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 25c | 640$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f15…50cbbacked Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked No | 39c | 339.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 78c | 321.93$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 60c | 223.12$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 24c | 216.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.38 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed No | 12c | 181.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 60c | 162.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 64c | 159.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 142.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 79c | 127.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 71c | 111.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 28c | 101.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 93.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 61c | 79.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 71c | 76.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 61c | 72.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…0fc3backed No | 29c | 67.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed No | 72c | 67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 22c | 62.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 78c | 62.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 29c | 62.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 57.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 30c | 54.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…a722backed Yes | 56c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 42.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…9481backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed No | 42c | 38.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfa…c90ebacked No | 70c | 37.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed No | 39c | 28.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 72c | 25.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…a729backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 19.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 18.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked No | 68c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…c7a2backed Yes | 73c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas end in a draw?No won
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.