Premier League · resolved market
Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c561e37adb24596841e1e4fe36f6d3eaee2b1ddeaee2238aa246222ba79bf0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 8,530$5,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,443.23 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 31c | 4,193$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 35c | 2,635$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.63 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 56c | 2,144$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.87 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.72 | 216 | 56.9%123 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 1,039$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.28 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 37c | 1,020$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.22 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 43c | 999$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.43 | 258 | 36%93 W · 165 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 69c | 828.6$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.84 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 60c | 758.33$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 45c | 491.04$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.07 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 70c | 331.24$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.88 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 227.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 44c | 143.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 70c | 71.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…217fbacked Over | 47c | 62.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Under | 70c | 54.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 59c | 51.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Over | 47c | 31.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Under | 43c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…4544backed Under | 71c | 24.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 67c | 15.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5this page
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Brighton (-1.5)Aston Villa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.