Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Brighton (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc321ab57a6c5eab87fc1a276b2e6c9e8af7d17783db2472b1e3f25c3558b5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villaof Brighton, Aston Villa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Brighton | 23c | 12,837$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.1 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa | 79c | 10,163$8,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.74 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Aston Villa | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…f088backed Brighton | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…f6bebacked Aston Villa | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Brighton | 22c | 1,928$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.2 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Aston Villa | 78c | 1,600$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Brighton | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.95 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Brighton | 21c | 999$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Aston Villa | 78c | 578.77$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Aston Villa | 78c | 553.95$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Aston Villa | 72c | 542.03$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Aston Villa | 79c | 284.51$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Brighton | 8c | 279.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Brighton | 22c | 260.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fe…d4f9backed Aston Villa | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Aston Villa | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 157 | 35.7%56 W · 101 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed Brighton | 24c | 191.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Brighton | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Aston Villa | 78c | 125.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Brighton | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Brighton | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 291 | 58.4%170 W · 121 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Brighton | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Aston Villa | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Aston Villa | 79c | 49.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Brighton | 22c | 47.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aston Villa | 75c | 40.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…767fbacked Aston Villa | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…78aebacked Aston Villa | 78c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Aston Villa | 78c | 22.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…7b19backed Aston Villa | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Brighton (-1.5)this page
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.