Champions League · resolved market
Will Fluminense vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb66fc364264210bac59d88c608f80df77703d3d99e328154f0ffe6c44562e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes | 26c | 3,085$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed No | 76c | 2,913$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 24c | 1,625$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.24 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 74c | 1,363$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.44 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 74c | 1,128$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.29 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 23c | 895.8$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 77c | 785.78$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 26c | 728$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 77c | 634.25$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 25c | 467.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 26c | 423.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…633bbacked Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…3761backed Yes | 14c | 207.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 76c | 195.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 26c | 161.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 75c | 137$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 74c | 70.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…7853backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…2533backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed No | 75c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Fluminense in regulation time?Yes won
- Will Fluminense beat Chelsea in regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.