Champions League · resolved market
Will Fluminense beat Chelsea in regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9e7d6d6106f96507a10fe444c51262bf22f36be37b4433bd2e618afc08d5cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 16c | 100,619$16,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,071.83 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +10.6wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 3,677$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.52 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 14c | 2,193$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…f6eabacked Yes | 13c | 876.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 15c | 842.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 5c | 750$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 17c | 631.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 17c | 585$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 17c | 517.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 16c | 475.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 17c | 450$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 18c | 450$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…d73bbacked Yes | 5c | 366.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yes | 14c | 338.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 14c | 302.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6c…465dbacked Yes | 16c | 288.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…c763backed Yes | 15c | 270.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes | 6c | 269.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…43c0backed Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa9…1b54backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Yes | 16c | 198.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…d597backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabf…2becbacked Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fe…edd5backed Yes | 15c | 126.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…6a9ebacked Yes | 17c | 113.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 18c | 112.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea0…632dbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Yes | 18c | 64.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense beat Chelsea in regulation time?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Fluminense in regulation time?Yes won
- Will Fluminense vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.