MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cbe49397c6cbd2a4f4ee54e16b0890055b43548f0e6a4de1d6d6989cd4badc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 1,247$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.99 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 816.5$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 382.19$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 338.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 326.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 285.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Philadelphia Phillies | 8c | 152.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 124.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 91.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 78.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 70.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 62.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 52.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 49.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 46.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 38.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 35.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 32.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.