MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461905c0f58b01a410d9693221f8fd76d0984d17a5b9ed154906a518271c4b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Under | 49c | 6,360$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,243.44 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 51c | 2,912$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.02 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,997$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.34 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 614.06$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.54 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 46c | 569.74$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.48 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 78c | 512.76$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 54c | 450.19$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 31c | 443.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.93 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 51c | 414.88$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 15c | 400.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 47c | 391.05$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 334.25$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 56c | 292.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 51c | 291.18$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 51c | 285.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 57c | 206.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 57c | 197.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 184.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 46c | 172.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 154.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 51c | 145.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 51c | 114.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 106.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 50c | 92.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 80.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 51c | 67.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 51c | 56.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 43.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 33.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 304 | 50.7%154 W · 150 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…ba89backed Over | 46c | 28.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 49c | 27.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked Over | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 57c | 24.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 71c | 19.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.