MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3444e397548fee38fd1e9855015955d3275c26a3642dd26e3f75363f6ad4ee37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 43c | 1,118$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.17 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 46c | 1,078$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Under | 55c | 1,073$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.68 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 57c | 901.17$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 684.06$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.08 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 659.03$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 38c | 552.72$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.52 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 64c | 464.05$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.89 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 44c | 434.81$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 54c | 298.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 73c | 294.25$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 58c | 265.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 18c | 237.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 209.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 56c | 208.63$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…9d91backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 204 | 43.1%88 W · 116 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 159.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 44c | 149.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 56c | 76.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 61c | 69.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 63c | 54.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 64c | 53.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 64c | 53.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 51.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 55c | 39.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 52c | 38.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 67c | 23.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.