Movies · resolved market
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ccddf2a72532320daf7f4a044419fc8745c627b8d4293b3c6a29897d3281b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 2c | 7,277$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 10c | 2,375$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 10c | 1,613$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 3c | 1,123$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,079$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.32 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked No | 21c | 1,032$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed No | 28c | 1,002$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 7c | 759.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 61c | 718$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.69 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 59c | 706.18$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.78 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 705.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 10c | 609.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed No | 37c | 523$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 3c | 508.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.65 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 16c | 369.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 24c | 269$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 252.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 18c | 167.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 56c | 109.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 12c | 102.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 38.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?this page
- Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m?No won
- Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m?No won
- Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?No won
- Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.