NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d24363c85387d8a767a020dc4045f4cb74a1aa0a18d6908db9a3c1a0ee775a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x151e…58debacked Under | 25c | 495.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…3728backed Over | 25c | 398.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…82c0backed Under | 23c | 299.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 52c | 277.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 75c | 271.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 265.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Over | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 37c | 179.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 25c | 139.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 38c | 98.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 25c | 76.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…2c92backed Over | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 35.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 75c | 33.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 46c | 27.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…395ebacked Over | 77c | 17.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 76c | 17.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aad…94ebbacked Over | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…b6aebacked Over | 77c | 16.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2f…1136backed Over | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Over | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…515fbacked Over | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…cdc0backed Over | 77c | 15.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ab…47f0backed Over | 77c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…aa4dbacked Over | 77c | 14.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…b5bfbacked Over | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379e…ad96backed Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…f9dcbacked Over | 77c | 13.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ac…ef78backed Over | 77c | 13.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…c6d8backed Over | 77c | 13.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef8…0516backed Over | 77c | 13.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. StarsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.