NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x714951485437bd34b8a9793faadac4def82714388391db8b6ff4b50a4e917056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1925…4654backed Over | 46c | 58,962$27,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,262.4 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 50,632$27,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,395.04 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 45c | 13,094$5,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,953.3 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 5,936$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.77 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Under | 57c | 3,302$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.56 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 55c | 1,255$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.88 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 56c | 999.96$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.98 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 982.06$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.57 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 921$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.67 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 45c | 770$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 535.92$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 54c | 492.24$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 43c | 459.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 459.54$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 281.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 221 | 51.1%113 W · 108 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 54c | 156.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…8616backed Under | 53c | 126.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 117.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 44c | 113.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 43c | 84.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 45c | 63.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 54c | 61.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 58.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…9bc6backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 44c | 40.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…6a8ebacked Under | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 46c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…03ddbacked Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…f8e2backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…1d71backed Under | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. StarsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.