NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb48ec48df64def40f2782d70936d908abc37bf8094c6556b3f699dab6344e50d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 50c | 4,424$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.65 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 1,507$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.8 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 1,035$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 60c | 1,017$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 60c | 977.36$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.94 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 644.36$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.73 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 46c | 310$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 215.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 57c | 159.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 53c | 140$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 131.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…035cbacked Over | 31c | 96.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 58c | 85.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 43c | 69.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 57c | 69.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 43c | 46.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 57c | 45.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 42c | 44.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 68c | 43.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 41c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…61cabacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 43c | 38.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Under | 43c | 32.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 59c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 24.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. StarsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.