F1 · resolved market
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d48571382cbed30a33f38de1d50f72e7ed34c5fc864bb6ca04c15bb61f9211f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamiltonof Verstappen, Hamilton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,771 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Verstappen | 26c | 340$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Verstappen | 35c | 289.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Hamilton | 78c | 216.9$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Hamilton | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…4fe4backed Verstappen | 37c | 160.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Verstappen | 30c | 123.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Hamilton | 63c | 121.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Hamilton | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Verstappen | 12c | 84.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…1334backed Verstappen | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Hamilton | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Verstappen | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Hamilton | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed Hamilton | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Hamilton | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hamilton | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton?this page
- Who will finish higher: Albon or Sainz?Albon won
- Who will finish higher: Alonso or Stroll?Stroll won
- Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg?Bortoleto won
- Who will finish higher: Colapinto or Gasly?Gasly won
- Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Norris?Hamilton won
- Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri?Hamilton won
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Piastri?Leclerc won
- Who will finish higher: Lindblad or Lawson?Lindblad won
- Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri?Norris won
- Who will finish higher: Piastri or Russell?Russell won
- Who will finish higher: Pérez or Bottas?Pérez won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar?Verstappen won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Leclerc?Leclerc won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Norris?Norris won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Piastri?Verstappen won
- Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell?Russell won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.