Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Choinski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6201cc06e212ada4fbd0e4a6f2807a100da115b0308833bf1a42e9334da425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Choinskiof Tiafoe, Choinski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd123…d341backed Tiafoe | 53c | 2,125$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.37 | 248 | 41.5%103 W · 145 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Choinski | 45c | 1,357$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.68 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…ffb3backed Tiafoe | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tiafoe | 50c | 555.08$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.82 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Choinski | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…c915backed Choinski | 48c | 495.56$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.51 | 208 | 46.2%96 W · 112 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…e1f9backed Choinski | 37c | 480$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tiafoe | 4c | 449$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tiafoe | 43c | 329.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Tiafoe | 62c | 295.32$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Choinski | 25c | 279$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…aa7cbacked Choinski | 44c | 222.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Tiafoe | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Tiafoe | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tiafoe | 21c | 196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tiafoe | 74c | 191$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tiafoe | 44c | 172.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Tiafoe | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Choinski | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Choinski | 36c | 98.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tiafoe | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Choinski | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…cde3backed Choinski | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Tiafoe | 59c | 61.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Tiafoe | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Choinski | 33c | 50.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Choinski | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…698bbacked Tiafoe | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Tiafoe | 63c | 28.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Choinskithis page
- Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs ChoinskiTiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5)Tiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Choinski (+2.5)Choinski won
- Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan ChoinskiFrances Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.