Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d7c22d81467067e68415a0bd57b0fbd93b4249fdf5a6e02ee9275f4d3f8d68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 958.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 45c | 915.23$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.03 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 511.31$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 6c | 285.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 281.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 269.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 247.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 29c | 208.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 30c | 204.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 73c | 182.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 16c | 178.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 16c | 170.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 163.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 32c | 154.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 150.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 144.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 136.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 129.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 30c | 128.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…04a1backed Yes | 13c | 122.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 33c | 114.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 113.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 35c | 111.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 36c | 102.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 100.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…6a2fbacked No | 65c | 99.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 66c | 91.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 29c | 88.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 86.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 74.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 33c | 73.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 65.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 59.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 72c | 53.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 45c | 49.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 49.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 66c | 47.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 45.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 57c | 44.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 43.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 42.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 35c | 42.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 42.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 41.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked Yes | 36c | 34.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 35c | 34.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 31.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 29.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 67c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 77c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 66c | 22.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 58c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 68c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 72c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 75c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.