Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d906654e35329d2d77eb34194028bbf7644049da7c7b4b180ce6189c2546066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 43c | 2,856$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.87 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…24f8backed Yes | 2c | 2,260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 5c | 2,059$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 78c | 1,333$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.22 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 71c | 986.76$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.3 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 23c | 576.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 23c | 522.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked Yes | 50c | 485.86$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 454.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 19c | 213$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 19c | 208.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 7c | 203.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 192.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 5c | 191.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 9c | 183.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +230.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 78c | 171.94$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…d3e3backed No | 77c | 165.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 61c | 139.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 22c | 118.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 76c | 107.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 14c | 107.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 11c | 104.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 11c | 103.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…5d6ebacked Yes | 23c | 100.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes | 26c | 98.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +9.3wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 31c | 79.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 26c | 73.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 24c | 59.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 42.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 78c | 41.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 46c | 41.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 77c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-22?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.