Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc956e71c277fe7bd127ef5454591ab1d4ec4f98b39d683ddbf0aa56ed540cbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…0574backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 64c | 267.72$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 23c | 257.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 63c | 251.52$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 62c | 246.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 38c | 209.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 44c | 185.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 43c | 171.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 43c | 171.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…653cbacked Yes | 26c | 168.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 159.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 37c | 148.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 47c | 136.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 74c | 131.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 126.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 16c | 118.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 62c | 116.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 115.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 22c | 113.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 75c | 112.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 26c | 111.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed No | 44c | 111.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 27c | 108.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…d3e3backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 36c | 94.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…ec4bbacked Yes | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 15c | 91.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 88.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…e99cbacked No | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked No | 76c | 79.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 63cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 34c | 66.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 43c | 65.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Yes | 40c | 64.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 25c | 58.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 26c | 58.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Yes | 57c | 52.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 22c | 51.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 73c | 44.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 67c | 43.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 44c | 41.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 38.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 42c | 36.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…a265backed No | 62c | 33.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 49c | 32.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 30.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 43c | 26.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-22?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.