MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da31bba9ac3c7b855087d83f23bcf250997084e5b329bc45a0b38e494764505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 1,289$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 24c | 969.66$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.71 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 69c | 710$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 409.63$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 253.23$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 69c | 218.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 63c | 204.79$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 36c | 102.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 20c | 98.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 58c | 84.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 76c | 77.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 66.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 74c | 61.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 29c | 59.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 59.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 43.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 42.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Under | 69c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 72c | 25.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 74c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 76c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City RoyalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.