MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x714d9a0aa8ccea54954ecb2b73ff16fadad1ebe75e158dcd5fdd73cd40a175c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 33,333$17,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,333.12 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 29,978$14,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,588.69 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 9,673$4,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836.31 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 2,571$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.29 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 1,423$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.96 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 1,173$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 1,164$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 859.07$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.54 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 585$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 419.16$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 354$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 296.61$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 21c | 252.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a570backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 237.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…dc3ebacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 237.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 234$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…fb29backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 204.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 106.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 101.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 98.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 19c | 78.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 46.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 36.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…e43cbacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…564cbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City RoyalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.