Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da735f3d3245e0a0713aadbe53ddcd6d2f0748b5f00bdb0b23cded520b9fcaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 482.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 42c | 365.26$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.65 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 272.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 28c | 178.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 168.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 166.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 164.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 48c | 145.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 19c | 145.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 10c | 141.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 18c | 116.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 50c | 100.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 91.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 49c | 85.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 80.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 41c | 57.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 67c | 56.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 55.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…fcf2backed No | 45c | 51.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 48.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 58c | 39.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 35.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 76c | 32.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 32.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 79c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…b728backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 65c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 65c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…55e4backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.