Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Anderlecht beat RFS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db1e5fd696d93768eaaedafdfb6b5e8e7bbc6e82534dc14c87073cb676749d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 50c | 5,690$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.07 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 44c | 1,497$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 52c | 1,151$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.99 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 51c | 1,110$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 59c | 1,003$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 54c | 744.26$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.07 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbccb…a425backed Yes | 48c | 281.32$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 50c | 232.14$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 55c | 208.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 56c | 186.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 50c | 173$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 44c | 147.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…bd61backed Yes | 33c | 143.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 47c | 138.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 48c | 119.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Yes | 56c | 99.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…ea32backed Yes | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…b6e5backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd35…4effbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…3ed1backed Yes | 54c | 73.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…d9a2backed Yes | 57c | 70.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 40c | 68.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…e04fbacked Yes | 58c | 42.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 43c | 42.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeeb…5393backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…657fbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb39…6f51backed Yes | 42c | 35.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf171…85febacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 22.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…df8fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…4607backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anderlecht beat RFS?this page
- Will RFS beat Anderlecht?No won
- Will the match between RFS and Anderlecht end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.