Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e820729ca14dd72809c5b5093d37405c353e50f6285bc59653beedae1428d69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Chelsea FC, Aston Villa FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,538 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 2,234$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.35 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Chelsea FC | 7c | 1,249$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.57 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Chelsea FC | 15c | 1,100$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Aston Villa FC | 80c | 1,074$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.98 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7864…800bbacked Chelsea FC | 18c | 543.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Aston Villa FC | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Chelsea FC | 34c | 293.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Chelsea FC | 23c | 180.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.31 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chelsea FC | 37c | 156.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Chelsea FC | 43c | 112.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Chelsea FC | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 170 | 48.8%83 W · 87 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Chelsea FC | 15c | 106.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Chelsea FC | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…88c4backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 91.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed Chelsea FC | 17c | 74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Chelsea FC | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Chelsea FC | 52c | 57.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Chelsea FC | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chelsea FC | 21c | 47.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Aston Villa FC | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.