Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x905bda765f251d46a6e3048bba7605684138e4dd4755c6d6f1d0b652994a74dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,925 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 19,010$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.16 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over | 80c | 10,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 79c | 3,798$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.58 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 79c | 3,600$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 20c | 2,927$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.45 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 79c | 1,910$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.08 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 20c | 1,809$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.31 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 21c | 1,700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 21c | 1,190$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.65 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2b…effbbacked Over | 78c | 1,033$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed Under | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 6c | 455.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 445.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 6c | 433.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…1c79backed Over | 79c | 334.24$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 7c | 276.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 21c | 197.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 21c | 193.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 78c | 190.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -9.1wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…3608backed Over | 80c | 151.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 8c | 136.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 79c | 106.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 21c | 92.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…db6fbacked Under | 20c | 80.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…afcdbacked Over | 79c | 73.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Over | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635f…6be6backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -9.5wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 22c | 50.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 80c | 39.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…bf04backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…e294backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…9f44backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed Over | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +47%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…2519backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…72bcbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…655cbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.