Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42370cee54974f26bf8c403e2bbc4b098a7e58823d0dbb8f8e75bd5836056d8e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $59,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Under	57c	15,271$8,705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,704.54	160	40.6%65 W · 95 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	32c	8,700$2,813 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,886.36	517	50.1%259 W · 258 L	+19.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	42c	4,829$2,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,796.33	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	33c	4,190$1,367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,822.75	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Under	68c	2,800$1,904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,904	135	65.2%88 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7896…5a86backed Under	50c	1,673$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.79	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over	34c	1,450$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.1	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc9…18c4backed Under	67c	1,400$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e1…e25abacked Under	67c	1,243$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.1	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under	26c	1,014$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.83	469	43.5%204 W · 265 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	33c	757$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.19	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	66c	700$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	77c	690.87$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.25	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Under	66c	599.94$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.96	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-6.3wins	-0.18per pick	59cpaid	-27%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under	68c	514.71$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	300	50.7%152 W · 148 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over	35c	428.57$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.57	350	28.9%101 W · 249 L	-19.2wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under	68c	400$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	232	58.2%135 W · 97 L	+13.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Under	69c	400$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	48c	341.67$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.67	97	24.7%24 W · 73 L	-6.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Over	33c	328$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.05	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	42c	316.47$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.03	1,923	42.4%815 W · 1,108 L	-42.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Under	66c	300$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under	67c	298.51$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	182	65.9%120 W · 62 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over	34c	294.12$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.12	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+32%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	32c	250$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	32c	250$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	1,208	42.2%510 W · 698 L	-27.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Over	56c	245.59$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.63	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over	31c	242$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.98	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Over	46c	213.04$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.04	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	51cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	34c	200$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	293	43.7%128 W · 165 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa370…06fbbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	31c	199.99$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf131…69cabacked Over	34c	180.65$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.23	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over	31c	180$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.2	518	47.3%245 W · 273 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Under	17c	149.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Under	66c	148.46$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.99	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8867…518cbacked Under	67c	141.15$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.57	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Under	67c	140.13$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.84	108	46.3%50 W · 58 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	33c	131.42$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.05	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed Under	67c	116$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.42	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd066…9eecbacked Over	33c	115.15$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.15	129	45.7%59 W · 70 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7864…800bbacked Under	16c	112.13$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Over	34c	102.91$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.92	122	36.1%44 W · 78 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over	56c	92.37$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.72	138	42.8%59 W · 79 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over	74c	90$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.32	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c77…8f06backed Under	69c	86.96$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under	23c	86.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea1c…b810backed Under	68c	82$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.76	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Over	34c	82$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.12	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	32c	77.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.67	1,074	45%483 W · 591 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x027b…5587backed Over	32c	74.41$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	54c	74.31$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.05	201	43.8%88 W · 113 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over	33c	65.91$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.16	1,007	51.5%519 W · 488 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Over	78c	60.74$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.12	114	50.9%58 W · 56 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under	66c	59.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.29	207	63.8%132 W · 75 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	46c	59.44$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.23	193	56%108 W · 85 L	+21.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked Over	34c	58.81$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.81	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	68c	53.44$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	162	38.3%62 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under	68c	52.02$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.26	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	54c	50.68$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Over	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0497…c5e3backed Under	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Under	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Over	33c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.5	297	51.9%154 W · 143 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under	68c	46.82$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.02	497	53.7%267 W · 230 L	+27.6wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	74c	45$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	411	60.1%247 W · 164 L	+22.1wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	37c	44.45$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14f2…2cb0backed Under	69c	43.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.6wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	56c	41.7$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	207	58%120 W · 87 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ba…960fbacked Under	67c	38.81$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	155	58.1%90 W · 65 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b8…80b8backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	56c	35.7$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	726	58.7%426 W · 300 L	+48.0wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca3…483abacked Under	68c	34.47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.44	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f69…91d6backed Over	35c	34.29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c4d…884bbacked Under	69c	33.55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	67cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Over	55c	32.04$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.51	89	33.7%30 W · 59 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Over	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	250	52%130 W · 120 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over	34c	30$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.95	43	79.1%34 W · 9 L	+8.3wins	+0.19per pick	60cpaid	+47%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf91f…f2ecbacked Under	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd8…553cbacked Under	69c	21.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	73cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed1f…225fbacked Over	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under	65c	17.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa64f…e598backed Over	64c	16.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.77	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5this page
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event