Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35fee66579796abcdf4ab4dade24c46d47c61eef0bbc38038e997003a99ae536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 53c | 108,782$57,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,934.98 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 55cpaid | +55%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 88,881$42,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,156.95 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 46c | 17,200$7,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,844.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 72c | 2,128$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…deb2backed Over | 55c | 2,020$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 32c | 1,667$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.89 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Under | 46c | 1,107$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Over | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 620.15$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.09 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 46c | 415$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 79c | 394.94$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 376.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…2867backed Under | 41c | 300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 72c | 243.82$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 53c | 240.52$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 42c | 224$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 228 | 32.9%75 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…71d6backed Over | 55c | 181.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 48c | 176.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Under | 77c | 129.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635f…6be6backed Over | 55c | 114.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 14c | 112$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 17c | 105.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…9417backed Under | 47c | 100.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 55c | 93.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 90.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 17c | 88.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 87.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 79c | 84.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 44c | 80.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdf…509dbacked Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 45c | 71.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…0a81backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Under | 72c | 65.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 31c | 64.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 24c | 53.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 51.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 43c | 45.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…6562backed Under | 48c | 39.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 54c | 39.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 248 | 44.4%110 W · 138 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over | 30c | 34.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…5da1backed Under | 48c | 31.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…8336backed Over | 56c | 31.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked Over | 59c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 38c | 26.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 75c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 65c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 67c | 15.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.