TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x76be…5da1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst Other European Leagues at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT3262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)backed Liverpool FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12.3
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$9.21
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.71
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$7.26
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.11
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.21
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$12.53
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.62
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed Newcastle United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.74
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+59.6%+$8.05
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$6.51
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$5.98
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$4.06
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.87
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$5.1
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$8.15
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$11.65
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$9.68
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+70%+$12.26
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.72
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.65
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.98
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$5.36
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$6.16
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+64.4%+$11.21
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.19
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+83.8%+$11.94
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.94
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.47
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+73.3%+$11.92
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.99
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+94.3%+$28.72
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+75.5%+$15.19
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+54.5%+$11.24
Everton FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+79.1%+$13.54
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5)backed Burnley FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.18
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Muchovabacked Victoria Mboko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.79
Alicante: Samuele Pieri vs Jesper de Jongbacked Jesper de Jong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.5%+$8.67
Naples: Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Martineaubacked Stan Wawrinka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Naples: Francesco Forti vs Vit Koprivabacked Francesco Forti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+62.8%+$7.53
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mbokobacked Victoria Mboko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$10.37
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence Atmanebacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
Murcia: Felix Gill vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Felix Gill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.85
Zadar: Martin Krumich vs Matej Dodigbacked Martin Krumich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.48
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Sho Shimabukurobacked Martin Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.99
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Joanna Garland vs Taylor Townsendbacked Taylor Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+65.7%+$15.27
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Yue Yuanbacked Yue Yuan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20.6
Hersonissos: Menelaos Efstathiou vs Alejandro Moro Canasbacked Menelaos Efstathiou · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+132.1%+$17.21
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+101.6%+$12.26
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$8.51
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.7
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$11.47
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+91%+$10.58
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
Bulls vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Knicks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$6.81
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+164.2%+$33.71
All 11 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
Will FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$6.49
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.57
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$9.48
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$18
Will AZ win on 2026-03-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.57
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.72
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$8.72
Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$8.78
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)backed Ferencvárosi TC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.74
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$7.27
Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)backed Santos FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$5.15
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.