Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e85c5ca7d3669130d422170be09cc0fdd6e7fc7fce0cff7397f2dc05074b479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5485…0864backed Yes | 0c | 56,350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 910$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 36c | 452.18$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 38c | 400.14$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 310.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 254.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 242.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 187.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 49c | 182.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 167.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 64c | 153.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 144$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 143.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 137.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 137.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 100.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 29c | 100.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 95.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 34c | 87.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 27c | 81.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 44c | 79.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 76.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 76.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 30c | 74.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 37c | 67.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 57.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 56.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 37c | 54.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 33c | 52.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…b06abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 75c | 49.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 48.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 46.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…5e99backed Yes | 35c | 45.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 31c | 45.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 51c | 42.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 64c | 39.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…8495backed Yes | 32c | 38.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 35.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 32.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 30.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.