Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e912f02bab87229a74254a4d796dcfa7864f1dfa4f243397ebd6cce56c8be60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 70c | 204.21$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…8814backed Yes | 61c | 185.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 16c | 127.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 29c | 116.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 20c | 101.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 94.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d4…24e6backed No | 63c | 87.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 85.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked No | 74c | 59.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 54.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 19c | 53.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes | 22c | 51.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 45c | 43.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 43.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 57c | 41.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 36.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 35.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 32.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 33c | 31.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…e66abacked Yes | 67c | 29.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 57c | 18.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 73°F or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.