Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion: Mariano Kestelboim vs Juan Pablo Varillas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e91a20a4f4160d7b3105b1efc26f8dfdcd610a625210db7cc1e3b6401d7e843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Pablo Varillasof Mariano Kestelboim, Juan Pablo Varillas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,292 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 7,762$5,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.03 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 4,352$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.1 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Mariano Kestelboim | 3c | 3,619$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mariano Kestelboim | 2c | 3,434$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 79c | 1,899$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.13 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 1,599$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.59 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 22c | 1,330$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.82 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 19c | 1,141$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mariano Kestelboim | 4c | 862.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 734.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.04 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 734.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…a178backed Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 665.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 636.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 529.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Mariano Kestelboim | 24c | 430.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 405.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mariano Kestelboim | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 338.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 267.44$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 203.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 184.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 74c | 179$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…756dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 157.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 142.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286a…ac60backed Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 141.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Mariano Kestelboim | 9c | 130.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 78c | 130.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb32…787dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Mariano Kestelboim | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Mariano Kestelboim | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Mariano Kestelboim | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…9679backed Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 94.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mariano Kestelboim | 18c | 85.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 82.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…4766backed Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 79.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Mariano Kestelboim | 16c | 67.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 79c | 67.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 65.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 64.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 58.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 54.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Mariano Kestelboim | 23c | 50.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 147 | 46.3%68 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Mariano Kestelboim | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 336 | 51.5%173 W · 163 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 253 | 66.8%169 W · 84 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.