Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e986dc6c48a0a934f2c08224b4fe96958b447c01acbc4144c384fec435cbdce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,360$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 17c | 1,321$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.14 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 864.23$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 780.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 14c | 717.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 477.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…aa32backed No | 75c | 423.35$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 4c | 380.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 371.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 15c | 302.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 17c | 275.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 13c | 265.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 256.52$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 15c | 218.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 21c | 218.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 13c | 209.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 205.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 199.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 14c | 199.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 196.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 194.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 189.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 12c | 154.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 14c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 147.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 16c | 147.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 13c | 138.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 132.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 18c | 126.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 78c | 125.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 16c | 123.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…c75fbacked Yes | 10c | 119.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 117.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 17c | 115.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…cad5backed Yes | 19c | 114.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 18c | 109.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 107.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 23c | 107.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 77c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…52eebacked Yes | 11c | 99.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed Yes | 19c | 95.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 13c | 94.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 74c | 90.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 34c | 88.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 86.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 82.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 16c | 81.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…5e91backed Yes | 28c | 77.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 74.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…1465backed Yes | 21c | 68.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 26c | 63.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 22c | 62.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 18c | 60.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…18f3backed Yes | 24c | 56.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 53.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 51.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 78c | 43.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 26c | 37.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…8188backed No | 74c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 76c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 80c | 28.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 77c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 21.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.