TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No5c951.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.564,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No12c496.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.887,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes25c376.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.477416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf0…d2b3backed No80c287.1$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.51225%3 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes27c260$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c249.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes39c241.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.433333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes34c239.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes25c229.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.131,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c223.66$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.562,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes23c218.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8510120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c214.13$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes18c212.29$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.6520025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c201$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.751,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c200$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes16c199.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9913010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes21c187.56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2345619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c180.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.081,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes73c177.15$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1625362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes28c166.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2914613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes27c165.07$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.592,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c150.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.745,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes19c150$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.516840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No11c146.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8734319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c146.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5794919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…4df3backed Yes32c143.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes24c121.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7156118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c120$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c117.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.574,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes22c116.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.262920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c111.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.089,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c108$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.563,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes24c105.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.12835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes23c102.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4712317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes18c99.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes20c98.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.235244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes32c93.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2234618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes20c89.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.911,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes41c86.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes20c81.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes27c80.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4926265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes18c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.628517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18c9…5e91backed Yes23c79.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes20c78.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.531637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc4…cad5backed Yes20c74.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.23650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c71.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes54c69.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9833349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c67.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No77c64.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9330859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes22c61.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2928119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b73…fad1backed Yes19c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No75c59.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes70c59.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0110059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c58.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3725536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c58.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.832,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…7bc8backed Yes27c57.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+168.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes18c56.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.552944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes18c56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c55.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x039c…af44backed Yes20c55.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.562231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No70c55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4557232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes79c54.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4323668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c52.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.792,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes49c52.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5317643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes34c50.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b06…ae19backed Yes22c50.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.31156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes25c49.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4910728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No79c48.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4635168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes30c44.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3713424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c3…9545backed Yes27c43.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes30c39.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5d…f6cfbacked No75c38.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes70c36.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.813042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4f…2c34backed No76c35.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.061968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b2…3109backed No75c34.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3757…055ebacked No76c33.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes48c33.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.361384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53c6…5677backed No75c32.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.79857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.878663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0043…dadebacked No48c29.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.223923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c29.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No80c28.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5414359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.484,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No48c27.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No74c27.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No74c26.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6741258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No75c26.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5811259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes73c24.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.498,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No78c22.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4567158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.240871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.