Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb4b3a93f3a5c7ff0a1cefe7c49a761d74440153ffb6757c598e4b7b4764d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 10,388$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,479$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,343$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…b6acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,215$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 1,014$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 2c | 958.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 18c | 671.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 15c | 665.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 549.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 30c | 426.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 397.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…4df3backed Yes | 6c | 288.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 243.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 239.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 221.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 180.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed Yes | 16c | 170.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…5447backed Yes | 32c | 150.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…3c72backed Yes | 11c | 146.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…3269backed Yes | 8c | 130.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 120.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…4815backed Yes | 21c | 119.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 9c | 116.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7586…5470backed Yes | 13c | 114.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 32c | 109.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 18c | 103.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 98.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 98.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 68c | 87.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 31c | 67.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 47.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 65c | 33.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 78c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.