TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes1c6,709$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8716840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes5c5,946$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.134,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…205ebacked Yes0c5,885$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes12c1,589$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes3c1,389$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.493767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes1c900$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c823.06$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes42c711.35$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.458151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c409.11$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c370.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes17c305.94$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c301.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.981,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No37c300.54$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.7316740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c300$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No45c297.85$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No77c293.12$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2427079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes26c281.37$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.221,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No70c272$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.616335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes64c256.23$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5925362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c252.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.376219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No47c242.76$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8618052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes16c238.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9313010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c227.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.456,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c222.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes32c220.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5910120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes12c220.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b73…fad1backed Yes25c210.03$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.821546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c201$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.331,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked No79c185.81$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.761471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes21c178.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.792,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes30c165.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x905c…14b5backed Yes64c152.45$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes24c150$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.57319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes17c149.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes25c149.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4956118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c143.56$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes61c141.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5614645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c139.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7394919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aab…a194backed No80c122.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes36c120.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.584452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes22c111.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes34c108.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes35c106.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes38c103.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c100.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes47c100.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed Yes34c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c98.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c96.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.652,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes51c96.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.045244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes53c95.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.941,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x122f…f7bebacked Yes61c93.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes64c93.1$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4326265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked No75c90.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.745139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed No36c88.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.29351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes21c88.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5110728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes48c87.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c86.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.513,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes19c83.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4832818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c82.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes24c81.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8112317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cc4…cad5backed Yes23c80.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c79.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.991,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No53c79.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9741460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18c9…5e91backed Yes43c77.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.66540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes42c76.41$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.071,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffd…72cfbacked No77c75.44$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.153420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c75.14$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056c…9c96backed Yes67c73.22$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.341833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No67c72.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8130664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes52c70.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3837644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes59c68.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.286737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No62c62.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.681,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes48c62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.768531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee3…12c6backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes20c58.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4552…ad4cbacked No42c57.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x039c…af44backed Yes51c57.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.162231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes49c57.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No75c56.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes31c56.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a9…3cc3backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8c…b2eebacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c68…8dc3backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.233349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No80c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.835168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes62c48.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.811637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes65c48.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2613042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No45c47.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4239159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes34c46.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes42c46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes31c45.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.052,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.