Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6e6a8c12ebf8eae2e92130c01f24faeec50d4cd6d254f53f4c604abd19e457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,709$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 5,946$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…205ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,885$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 12c | 1,589$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.86 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,389$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 823.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 42c | 711.35$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.45 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 409.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 370.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 17c | 305.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 301.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 37c | 300.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.73 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 45c | 297.85$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 77c | 293.12$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 281.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 70c | 272$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 64c | 256.23$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.59 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 252.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 242.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 16c | 238.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 227.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 222.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 32c | 220.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 12c | 220.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 25c | 210.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 201$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked No | 79c | 185.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 178.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 30c | 165.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 64c | 152.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 149.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 143.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 61c | 141.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 139.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…a194backed No | 80c | 122.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 36c | 120.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 111.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 108.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 35c | 106.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 38c | 103.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 100.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…32f6backed Yes | 47c | 100.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 34c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 98.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 96.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 53c | 95.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122f…f7bebacked Yes | 61c | 93.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 64c | 93.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 75c | 90.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 36c | 88.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 21c | 88.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 87.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 86.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 19c | 83.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 82.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 24c | 81.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…cad5backed Yes | 23c | 80.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 53c | 79.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…5e91backed Yes | 43c | 77.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 42c | 76.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked No | 77c | 75.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 75.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…9c96backed Yes | 67c | 73.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 67c | 72.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 52c | 70.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 59c | 68.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 62.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…12c6backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 58.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…ad4cbacked No | 42c | 57.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 51c | 57.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 57.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 56.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 56.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…3cc3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…8dc3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 65c | 48.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 45c | 47.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 34c | 46.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 45.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.