Fifa International · resolved market
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9dd311d6cd00ce35d1da5fc3f85805198569ddb349b7cff27ce40c64f25212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e90…4782backed Yes | 3c | 2,919$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked Yes | 40c | 1,660$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152d…1b20backed No | 62c | 1,406$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.68 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 60c | 749.98$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.99 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 10c | 643.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…db6dbacked Yes | 40c | 597.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.59 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc843…32b7backed Yes | 41c | 415.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 59c | 396.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 60c | 342.03$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 42c | 315.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…eeb9backed Yes | 40c | 252.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Yes | 40c | 164.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…4448backed Yes | 39c | 127$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Yes | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 180 | 40%72 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 39c | 101.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…83d5backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed No | 57c | 83.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 365 | 34.2%125 W · 240 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 74.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…7d87backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 33.5%60 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 59c | 58.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 58c | 38.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…7ecebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…0395backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745e…964bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…bb46backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…8329backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93eb…e631backed No | 61c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 72c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Darwin Núñez: 1+ goalsthis page
- Darwin Núñez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 2+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 3+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 3+ goalsNo won
- Giorgian De Arrascaeta: 1+ goalsNo won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nicolás de la Cruz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Rodrigo Bentancur: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rodrigo Zalazar: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ronald Araújo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Saleh Al Shehri: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.