Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3907103c6322958ea5959beb38995777bd01e230f99c1f8bf8c382f7fc9c12d1

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,849 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	74c	2,038$1,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.32	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	74c	1,055$785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.1	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe346…9040backed Yes	26c	1,027$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267	105	25.7%27 W · 78 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	74c	999.94$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.98	165	64.2%106 W · 59 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes	25c	705.14$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.29	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4018…fba4backed Yes	25c	391.72$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.93	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No	75c	339.6$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.9	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e74…ec81backed Yes	25c	307.88$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	286	26.9%77 W · 209 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	25c	260.86$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.22	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5e…9266backed Yes	25c	247.68$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.92	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Yes	26c	211.54$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	126	31%39 W · 87 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc31a…bfb2backed Yes	24c	210.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	20.5%17 W · 66 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes	25c	200.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	180	37.2%67 W · 113 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	25c	199.4$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…0fc0backed Yes	26c	192.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	321	45.5%146 W · 175 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	77c	156.61$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.8	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc56…cbe8backed Yes	25c	154$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	124	35.5%44 W · 80 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No	74c	149.98$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	243	44.4%108 W · 135 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	23c	136$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.38	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No	74c	133.04$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.22	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	79c	127.61$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…02b0backed Yes	25c	120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	365	34.2%125 W · 240 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked No	76c	101.32$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.32	98	58.2%57 W · 41 L	+8.3wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	255	37.6%96 W · 159 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	26c	82.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc2…74d6backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Yes	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No	74c	71.89$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.69	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd875…19cfbacked Yes	32c	58.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	228	24.6%56 W · 172 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed No	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d0…0736backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	315	43.5%137 W · 178 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed No	74c	38.78$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.17	1,151	58.5%673 W · 478 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No	75c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	172	71.5%123 W · 49 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	75c	25.16$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.31	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No	77c	21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.83	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	77c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.45	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event